Here we go again. This is horsebleep. When your Ace gives up 5 runs in 1 and a third, it’s time to find something else to do with your afternoon. To add insult to injury Pujols looks to have hurt himself in Chicago again, this time a hyperextended elbow, nothing serious. The superstitious side of me says it’s time to quit calling the Cubs cursed, because it’s just coming back on us. Sure,they probably are cursed if there are such thing as curses, but you won’t hear me say it anymore. At least not until we start beating them again on a regular basis.

To make me a little more despondent, Bernie Miklasz says he expects Hector Luna to be traded to the Indians for Ronnie Belliard this afternoon. Seems like a waste of a move, when you could just start Luna who appears to be about the same player, only younger and with speed. But I guess LaRussa sees him nothing more then a sub/platoon guy. Belliard is turning FA this winter, which will force Walt go back to search the bargain basement again for another second sacker this offseason.

On the bright side, at least Miles will go to the pine where he belongs. I guess we can keep him when we need a pinch hitter to face Brad Lidge. And we’ll at least get some decent production from 2nd, and as I noted earlier today the Miles is terrible at turning 2, while Ronnie D-O double jizzle excels.

Outside of that move, I’m not expecting much between now and 3pm tomorrow. Given the constraints we have, it’s looking like the waiver wire is where the Cardinals moves will be made, if at all. I have a pretty strange feeling we will end up with Shawn Green, just my gut feeling..I kinda hope I’m wrong. 

Update: Rosenthal is saying the same thing, and adds that we’ll only deal for Belliard if he stays healthy for today’s game. Well, it’s 2 outs in the 9th inning and Ronnie’s gone one for three verses the M’s today. So it appears it’s going down if Rosenthal is right. (And he usually is.) He pulled a hammy recently but has recovered. And it looks like the struggling Guillermo Mota could be thrown in the deal. That makes me….even more despondent.

Update, again 3:31PM: Wouldn’t you think with Rodriguez hurting himself that maybe he uses Luna to pinch-run/play LF? And wouldn’t he be the preferable pinch hitter earlier in the game instead of Marquis? As for Rodriguez, who replaces him? Maybe this guy. .288/.349/.496 with 7 HR in 139 AB’s. Translated into MLE’s? .751 OPS. Dude certainly is old enough and would be preferred over Skip.

If we played 162 games verses the Cubs a year, how many would we win? If you answered 95-100+, congratulations! You are not on a ledge. If you said 60, please seek professonial guidance.

How do the Cubs do it? I don’t know, baseball doesn’t always make sense. I didn’t see the game today, work and all but it sounded like a real hum-dinger. Evil Marquis, aka Bipolar Betty took another noogie and I’m sure most have seen this insane stat by now.  In Marquis’s 12 wins-2.97 ERA. In losses, 12.57. Of course those are inflated by two incredibly merciless beatdowns from the ChiSox and the Bravos, but there is no middle ground with Marquis. Life, and a box of chocolates is like Jason Marquis. You never know what you’re going to get. You may get the gooey caramel blend or you may get a razor blade or a rat **** inside.

With Marquis heading to free agency, I’d like to somehow see us part ways with somehow, someway. The oft-cited scooper Bernie Miklasz said today the Cards focus is now pitching, namely a starter and a lefty reliever. With Dontrelle Willis looking more and more like a pipe dream, I think the Cards could go bargain shopping and pick up Rheal Cormier, Cory Lidle and Dave Dellucci from the Phils. As MLBTraderumors.com mentioned, Dellucci is being showcased right now, as Burrell has sat 4 out of the last 5 games for the Phils. Dellucci currently has a .976 OPS in 128 AB’s. I admit, my love fest for Chris Duncan has cooled after taking an honest look at his MLE’s, watching him "play defense" and seeing him fall over the place every time he takes a swing. Dellucci is playing great ball right now and I admit I keep wavering back and forth on whether or not he’s an upgrade or now. Right now I say buy.

As far as Lidle goes, K/9 is 7.04, BB/9 2.8, GB% 49.4% yet he has a 4.74 ERA. There’s something unlucky there, whether it be Phillies defense, park or what, but I’ll take him over Marquis right now. He just came off a game verses the DBacks where he fanned 8 in 8 innings and didn’t walk a soul.

On the flip side of luck Rheal Cormier is stranding 92% of his runners and has a 1.59 ERA,  while Tyler Johnson is stranding 72% of the batters he’s faced and his ERA is 5.06 ERA. Tyler is getting way more strike outs, but Cormier is walking far less batters and has been effective against righties and lefties. With a 3.6 K/9 rate I don’t know how he’s doing it, I’m guessing luck but I for the stretch I’ll take the guy who’s not putting runners on and getting out of jams right now.

Reyes verses Maddux, another big name pitcher to match up against Anthony tomorrow. The thing to watch? Reyes velocity and how he sets up his change up. A poster at Gateway Redbirds that goes by the moniker Longhorn Baseball has charted every pitch thrown by Reyes, and has seen his velocity decline. I could be reading it wrong, but it seems like because the zip on his fastball isn’t there he’s not able to set up the change as good. Perhaps batters are sitting on it more like they did in Colorado. Or maybe it’s the "pitch to contact, 2 seamer, DD and TLR are ruining the kid" conspiracy theory. But there was a story in May about Reyes’ velocity dropping. And I’ve heard some are saying his arm angle looks different, and that could be part of it. Feel free to drop your theories in the comments. I don’t know for sure,he certainly doesn’t look right to me, but here’s hoping it’s just growing pains and Reyes sticks it to the Cubbies tomorrow.

(EDIT:What’s with MLBlogs system? I can’t say T-u-r-d?)

What is it about the Cubs that brings the worst out of this team? Pujols had his worst at bat of the season with the bases loaded by swinging at some ugly balls and grounding into a double play. Tyler Johnson should not have been brought into the game as Weaver had really settled in nicely and had the hot hand. I realize he had thrown 101 pitches, but that should’ve been his inning. And Scott Rolen made one of the goofiest plays I’ve ever seen him make. Hancock induced the perfect ground ball and he just booted it.

Juan Encarnacion looked asleep at the wheel as Nevin went home from second on a week single off the bat of Neifi (!) Perez. Chris Duncan didn’t make the wisest choice jumping in front of that single off Juan Pierre. (Speaking of Pierre, that little chest thud, I’m the pimp thing…yeah, that has got to go.)

On the contrary, the Cubs flashed the leather every time they needed it, and too many times the balls seemed to find the holes just at the right time.

And I don’t know what it is about Weaver that it takes him so long to settle in. He didn’t pitch a great game, but he started to look pretty strong as the game went on with that filthy slider of his. I don’t know if he needs better prepare himself mentally, or take more time warming up, or what exactly. I’d also like to see him stop mad dogging the umpires every time a call doesn’t go his way. That stuff doesn’t help.

Ugh. I’m sick of losing to these jokers. Embarrassing.

Elsewhere, Carlos Lee rejected a 4/Y, $48M offer from the Brewers to extend him. I guess the Brew Crew can’t say they didn’t try now. Joe Strauss at the Post says the Cardinals are targeting him. He’d certainly fit the profile of an impact bat with VORPs of 27.5, 38.5, 24.7, and 27.5 this season. I would think it could turn into a bidding war with the Tigers, Angels and Dodgers having an interest and probably more chips to deal with. And I’m totally crazy about the Cardinals giving a division rival on the rise anything significant that could beat us later. Jocketty thinks about building for the future in mid-season trades, and I’m not sure Lee is a guy we want to build around at a crazy price. Pretty low OBP and lots of people wondering about Lee and his big-bonedeness and when he’ll fall off a cliff.

But for a stretch run at the right price, giddy up El Caballo!

W5. That’s now 18 innings of shutout ball against a very good hitting team. Coming into this series the Dodgers have scored 5.31 runs per game, tied for 1st with the Mets, and the Cardinals are blanking them. I know it’s only 2 games into the second half, but this is a very nice contrast to the poor pitching we endured for that long, dismal stretch. Carp was just terrific in his 9 innings of 2 hit ball. Jimmy flashed the leather twice. And Chris Duncan looked like a different player tonight then he did the night before.  And Eckstein was set the table beautifully. Ah, winning baseball. I love it.

Well, before some of you or myself get too excited about the pitching coach’s son, Jim Hayes of the Sports Report is saying that according to the P-D’s Joe Strauss, Dave Dellucci is close to coming to St. Louis. I didn’t see the report, because I’m not lucky enough to have FSMW here in Iowa, the land of porkloin sandwiches, sweet corn and boredom. So I don’t know what actually was said, but several posters on different forums are saying the same things.

I can’t say I’m super excited about this possibilty, because Dellucci just doesn’t seem like the impact bat we need. Sounds like another super-saver deal due to budget contraints and lack of a ton of depth in the farm system. But I’m okay with this deal, as Dellucci does represent an offensive upgrade. The pros:

• He has power. This season and last he has an ISO of .270 in 543 plate appearances. You could say that he was aided by hitters park’s like Texas and Philly’s, but his home/away splits don’t agree.
• He can take a walk. He has a 10.7% walk percentage and walked in 15% of his plate appearances last season and he has a career .346 OBP. Could be the permanent answer for the 2 spot in the lineup the rest of the season.
• He’s dirt cheap. The Phils have already paid him half of the $950K on his contract which expires at the end of the season. Great value.
• He projects to age somewhat nicely. According to Baseball Prospectus, he projects an EqA of .295, .290, .298, .300. …(That’s pretty good, and much better then Chris Duncan’s projections.) That’s assuming we decide to keep him around next season or so. But they also project him to continue his string of injuries, which brings me to-

The cons:

• He’s injury prone. He just hasn’t been able to stay healthy.
• He can’t hit lefties a lick. Luna and Taguchi could be his platoon partner, but yippee.
• He stikes out A LOT. In 25% of his AB’s, to be exact. His power and on base abilities make up the difference, though.

I think he’s a modest upgrade and you can’t beat the price. (We’re paying Larry Bigbie the same amount of dough to not hit in low A ball right now). Is he really the "impact bat" Walt is hoping for? No, not really but he’s certainly worth a shot with all the other overpriced options out there and we won’t have to give up much in order to swing him. It’s not a wow move, but it’s a reasonably smart one in my opinion.

UPDATED: From Bernie Miklasz "He can get Dellucci. He’s holding off a bit, hoping to get more of an impact bat. " That’s good news. I do hope he can get that impact bat, but I’m not sure what we can get without giving up a king’s ransom. July 31st is still a little while away, we’ll see.